Almost as unpredictable as the Super Bowl

Today's list of Oscar nominations had its share of gimmes as well as a number of "what the..." moments, not unlike the road to Super Bowl XL. You have the old-school favorites, the Steelers, manifested in Frances McDormand or Judy Dench, and the newbies who've come from behind, the Seahawks -- think Reese Witherspoon or Jake Gyllenhaal.

Then there's the decisions that inspire nothing but dropped jaws because they're so unexpected: Keira Knightley's best actress nod is as surprising as Seattle's upset over the Panthers -- were both perhaps not given enough credit at the beginning of the season? I say yes for Seattle, but Knightley's recognition seems to defy explanation.

"Crash's" appearance in the picture category is a nice surprise (now departing from the football metaphor); "Capote's" slot surprised me even more. It's too early for predictions ... I must ponder. But the nominations from the Golden Globes, SAGs and Oscars, if nothing else, should teach us that guessing is futile 50% of the time. Just ask the NFL analysts.